Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 120,509
2 South Dakota 110,955
3 Iowa 88,210
4 Wisconsin 88,117
5 Nebraska 84,883
6 Utah 84,007
7 Rhode Island 81,925
8 Tennessee 81,642
9 Idaho 77,730
10 Wyoming 75,891
11 Montana 75,334
12 Kansas 75,314
13 Illinois 74,979
14 Indiana 74,751
15 Minnesota 72,907
16 Arkansas 72,650
17 Alabama 71,750
18 Oklahoma 71,716
19 Nevada 71,551
20 Mississippi 70,571
21 Arizona 70,142
22 Missouri 66,857
23 New Mexico 66,723
24 Louisiana 65,497
25 Alaska 62,683
26 Florida 60,166
27 Texas 59,863
28 Kentucky 59,124
29 Georgia 58,761
30 Ohio 58,393
31 South Carolina 58,383
32 Delaware 57,702
33 Colorado 57,324
34 California 56,770
35 New Jersey 52,866
36 Massachusetts 52,387
37 Michigan 52,377
38 Connecticut 51,038
39 North Carolina 50,194
40 Pennsylvania 49,061
41 New York 48,871
42 West Virginia 46,186
43 Maryland 44,869
44 District of Columbia 40,432
45 Virginia 39,868
46 Puerto Rico 34,256
47 Washington 32,264
48 New Hampshire 31,401
49 Oregon 26,378
50 Maine 17,042
51 Hawaii 14,958
52 Vermont 11,541

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 1,486
2 California 957
3 Connecticut 862
4 Arizona 790
5 Texas 769
6 South Carolina 758
7 Kansas 723
8 New Hampshire 677
9 Oklahoma 612
10 Delaware 587
11 Arkansas 582
12 Louisiana 572
13 Alabama 567
14 Idaho 563
15 Mississippi 561
16 Massachusetts 555
17 Tennessee 551
18 Utah 545
19 Georgia 526
20 New York 523
21 Ohio 510
22 Kentucky 499
23 West Virginia 482
24 Pennsylvania 479
25 Nebraska 451
26 South Dakota 450
27 Wyoming 447
28 Nevada 439
29 Missouri 433
30 Florida 429
31 New Mexico 426
32 Virginia 418
33 Indiana 409
34 Wisconsin 402
35 District of Columbia 389
36 Illinois 375
37 North Carolina 372
38 Iowa 371
39 Puerto Rico 349
40 Maine 337
41 New Jersey 327
42 Maryland 312
43 Montana 310
44 Colorado 303
45 Alaska 277
46 Minnesota 269
47 Michigan 253
48 Oregon 229
49 Washington 215
50 North Dakota 207
51 Vermont 126
52 Hawaii 49

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,114
2 New York 1,915
3 Massachusetts 1,772
4 North Dakota 1,683
5 Connecticut 1,661
6 Rhode Island 1,661
7 South Dakota 1,634
8 Louisiana 1,591
9 Mississippi 1,585
10 Illinois 1,389
11 Michigan 1,297
12 Iowa 1,208
13 Pennsylvania 1,202
14 Indiana 1,195
15 Arkansas 1,193
16 Arizona 1,187
17 New Mexico 1,146
18 District of Columbia 1,098
19 South Carolina 1,009
20 Florida 996
21 Nevada 985
22 Georgia 983
23 Tennessee 973
24 Alabama 966
25 Maryland 959
26 Texas 948
27 Missouri 939
28 Minnesota 931
29 Delaware 922
30 Wisconsin 885
31 Montana 878
32 Kansas 874
33 Nebraska 842
34 Colorado 826
35 Idaho 781
36 Ohio 746
37 West Virginia 716
38 Wyoming 699
39 Kentucky 649
40 North Carolina 632
41 California 631
42 Oklahoma 607
43 Virginia 576
44 New Hampshire 540
45 Puerto Rico 457
46 Washington 450
47 Utah 386
48 Oregon 345
49 Alaska 263
50 Maine 247
51 Vermont 208
52 Hawaii 199

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Wyoming 18
2 Arkansas 17
3 Mississippi 17
4 Rhode Island 17
5 New Mexico 13
6 Connecticut 12
7 Indiana 12
8 Pennsylvania 12
9 Tennessee 12
10 Arizona 10
11 Illinois 10
12 Massachusetts 10
13 Michigan 9
14 Nevada 9
15 Louisiana 8
16 New Hampshire 8
17 Idaho 7
18 Iowa 7
19 Nebraska 7
20 Ohio 7
21 Wisconsin 7
22 California 6
23 Colorado 6
24 District of Columbia 6
25 Kentucky 6
26 Maryland 6
27 Missouri 6
28 Montana 6
29 New Jersey 6
30 New York 6
31 Washington 6
32 Minnesota 5
33 North Dakota 5
34 Texas 5
35 West Virginia 5
36 Florida 4
37 Kansas 4
38 Oklahoma 4
39 South Carolina 4
40 Vermont 4
41 Alabama 3
42 Maine 3
43 Virginia 3
44 Georgia 2
45 Oregon 2
46 Puerto Rico 2
47 Utah 2
48 Delaware 1
49 North Carolina 1
50 Alaska 0
51 Hawaii 0
52 South Dakota 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 270,252 1 99
Norton Kansas 219,922 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 215,372 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 213,510 4 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 213,302 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 96,927 323 89
Richland South Carolina 62,065 1581 49
York South Carolina 52,737 2053 34
Orange California 50,533 2146 31
Pierce Washington 29,994 2826 10

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,587 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,452 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 3 99
Gregory South Dakota 6,213 4 99
Foster North Dakota 5,919 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 801 1800 42
Richland South Carolina 801 1801 42
York South Carolina 634 2109 32
Orange California 582 2201 29
Pierce Washington 372 2578 17

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons